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Many mathematicians have tried and failed to create the perfect betting strategy. Each betting system has its shortcomings no matter how badly someone tries to convince you that their strategy is guaranteed.

But does this mean that all betting strategies are total junk?

No, some strategies do have merit and provide short or even long-term results. The only catch is figuring out which betting systems are worth using.

Let’s discuss 10 wagering strategies that work. Some of these systems only work on specific games like baccarat or roulette, while others can apply to any casino game.

1. Betting 2% or Less of Your Bankroll

A common scenario for casual gamblers is to walk into the casino with around $200 dollars and make bets between $10 and $25.

This seems harmless in theory, if you’re gambling with expendable income. But the problem is that you’re very likely to run out of money this way.

One good idea that comes from sports betting is only risking 2% or less of your bankroll on any given wager.

Professional and serious amateur sports bettors do this to minimize their short-term risk. But you can really apply this system to any casino game.

Here’s an example:

• Your bankroll is $2,000.
• 2% of your bankroll is $40.
• You can place bets worth $40 or lower.

Pros of Betting 2% or Less of Your Bankroll

The biggest benefit to wagering 2% or less of your bankroll is that it keeps you in the game. You’re not risking chunks worth 5. 20% of your bankroll like most players.

This is helpful in any casino game from blackjack to Caribbean stud poker. But it’s especially useful in skill-based games like daily fantasy sports (DFS), poker, and sports betting.

The reason why is because skill-based games are prone to more streakiness than house-banked games. In these games, it’s common to experience long dry streaks that make you question if they’ll ever end.

The best way to get through them is by risking small amounts of your bankroll on each wager. Furthermore, you’ll dramatically lower your risk of ruin.

Cons of Betting 2% or Less of Your Bankroll

The first problem with this system is that most players don’t have a large enough bankroll to only wager 2% or less per bet. Under this system, you’ll need at least $1,000 in just to make a $20 wager (2%).

Professionals can afford to be disciplined like this because they have large bankrolls. But if you’re just a casual blackjack or craps player, you probably don’t walk into the casino with thousands of dollars.

Another downside is that some players find that this system doesn’t offer enough action. These same players may like varying their wagers from big to small depending upon how lucky they feel.

But, as long as you have a large enough bankroll, this system is definitely worth using.

2. The Martingale

The Martingale betting strategy has two things going for it:

• It’s easy.
• This system will theoretically provide a profit every time.

The Martingale calls on you to double bets after every loss. The goal is to always win back your losses and earn a small profit in the process.

You should also make even-money bets with the Martingale in order to simplify things and minimize your risk.

Here’s an example:

• You bet $10 and win (+10).
• You bet $10 and lose (0).
• You bet $20 and lose (- 20).
• You bet $40 and lose (- 60).
• You bet $80 and lose (- 140).
• You bet $160 and lose (- 300).
• You bet $320 and win (+20).
• Next bet returns to $10.

Pros of the Martingale

The Martingale’s best aspects include its ease of use and how it can theoretically be successful.

As long as you have the funds to continue doubling bets after losses, you’ll eventually win back your money. You’ll also book small profits along the way every time you win.

The Martingale is one of the best systems for those looking for consistent short-term profits.

Cons of the Martingale

The Martingale’s downside is that it’s an extremely risky strategy. You’ll be betting far more than your original wager after 5 to 6 losing wagers.

This can make you hesitant to pull the trigger on the next double bet. Even worse is that your bankroll will vanish if the losing streak continues.

Another problem is that casinos impose table limits to prevent wealthy gamblers from the using the Martingale to the fullest. Otherwise, Mark Zuckerberg ($56 billion net worth) would always win with the Martingale because his bankroll would likely never run out.

You’ll eventually run into a losing streak that’s long enough to hit the table limit. In this case, you take a big loss because you can no longer double wagers to win everything back.

3. The Martingale in Skill-Based Games

We just covered how the Martingale is a very risky betting strategy. What’s more is that this system doesn’t do anything to alter the house edge.

But what if you could combine the Martingale’s effectiveness with skill?

This betting strategy can be profitable in skill based games like DFS and sports betting. Not only can you win back your losses with the Martingale, but you can also swing the odds in your favor with enough skill.

Here’s an example of how this works in DFS:

• You lose a $10 + $1 (fee) head to head contest (- 11).
• You lose a $20 + $2 head to head contest (- 33).
• You lose a $40 + $4 head to head contest (- 77).
• You win an $80 + $8 head to head contest (- 5).
• You win a $10 + $1 head to head contest (+5).

The tough thing about DFS contests is that you have to pay an extra 10% entry fee to the sites. But as the above example shows, the Martingale strategy can still help you book a profit even if you lose the majority of contests.

Let’s look at one more example involving sports betting:

• You lose an $11 bet (- 11).
• You lose a $22 bet (- 22).
• You lose a $44 bet (- 77).
• You lose an $88 bet (- 165).
• You win a $176 bet and earn a $160 profit (- 5).
• You win an $11 bet and earn a $10 profit (+5),

The drawback to sports betting is that the house takes 10% juice from the losing side. But the Martingale can still help you be profitable when you string together two or more wins.

Pros of Using the Martingale in Skill-Based Games

The great thing about using this system in skill-based contests is that you can overcome short-term variance by consistently winning back losses.

The sports betting example above shows how you can earn back your losses plus a small profit even after several losing wagers.

Another advantage is that you’re not just using the Martingale in a casino game with a house edge. Instead, you’re playing skill based games.

The end result is that you get the enviable combination of getting your losses back and having a chance to win long-term profits.

Cons of Using the Martingale in Skill-Based Games

You’re taking a risk on three fronts with this betting strategy:

• You might be at a skill disadvantage to opponents/other bettors.
• You’re still dealing with the Martingale risks.
• You must pay 10% fees (DFS) or 10% juice on losses (sports betting).

The first point is key because you could be facing an even worse proposition than house-banked casino games if you’re not better than opponents.

Add in the standard Martingale risks along with sportsbook/DFS fees, and non-skilled bettors are looking at a potential bankroll disaster.

4. Betting on Baccarat’s Banker Hand

Baccarat gives you three different betting options, including the banker hand, player hand, and tie bet. And the top system for playing baccarat involves making the banker bet every time.

The reason why is because the banker hand only has a 1.06% house edge. Compare this to the player hand and tie wager, which have 1.24% and 14.36% house edges, respectively.

Given that all you need to do is bet on the banker hand every time, baccarat is great for casual players who don’t want to deal with in-depth strategy.

Pros of Betting on the Banker Hand

The banker hand wager is one of the best in gaming. Only a handful of casino games offer a lower house edge than 1.06%.

The other advantage to wagering on the banker hand is that you don’t have to study strategy. Instead, you simply need to make the same bet every time.

Cons of Betting on the Banker Hand

The banker hand’s 1.06% house edge isn’t as harmless as it seems.

Mini baccarat games see anywhere from 120. 200 hands dealt per hour. This is 2. 3 times the hand rate that you’ll see in blackjack games and this exposes you more to the house edge.

Let’s look at the theoretical losses that you’d be facing in a fast-dealt baccarat game:

• You’re making $10 bets on the banker
• The table is seeing 200 hands per hour.
• This adds up to $2,000 in total hourly bets.
• We take 2,000 x 0.0106.
• Your theoretical losses are $21.20 per hour.

5. Value Betting

Value betting is the process of getting maximum value out of situations where you have a long-term advantage. This term is most often used in poker, but it can also describe how blackjack card counters operate.

Value betting requires being able to spot and take advantage of favorable situations.

One example is when a poker player believes they have the best hand and bets in a way that extracts maximum value from their opponent. Going further, their wagers need to be large enough to get the most value from the opposing player, yet small enough that the opponent won’t fold.

Another example involves how card counters keep track of the deck until the count swings in their favor. They then make larger bets to maximize situations where the deck is rich in 10s and aces.

Pros of Value Betting

Anybody who wants to make long-term profits through gambling can benefit from value betting. This is how poker pros and card counters earn their living.

In poker’s case, being good at value betting can separate you from opponents. Getting the most value out of your great hands will improve your profits in the long run.

Cons of Value Betting

The problem with this betting strategy is that it calls on you to have the following qualities:

• Being good at math.
• Being skilled in the game you’re playing.
• Being able to walk a fine line with betting.

Wagering too little prevents you from capitalizing on your best poker hands. Wagering too much pushes your opponents out of hands and keeps you from making money on future streets.

For card counters, betting too high in favorable situations can attract the casino’s attention. In turn, they’ll find out that you’re a card counter and ban you for life.

6. Taking Craps Odds

The best regular bets in craps include pass line, don’t pass line, come, and don’t come. But there’s another craps wager that’s even better than these called odds.

Craps odds is the best bet in the casino because it doesn’t have a house edge. Instead, you’re paid at your true odds of winning. And one of the top betting strategies that you can use includes continually backing regular bets with odds.

To place an odds wager, you need to first make a pass line or don’t pass line bet after a point has been established. You should also inform the dealer that you’re making an odds bet.

Here are the payouts for when you back a pass line bet with odds (a.k.a. taking odds):

• 2 to 1 on point numbers of 4 and 10.
• 3 to 2 on points of 5 and 9.
• 6 to 5 on points of 6 and 8.

Here are payouts for when you back a don’t pass line wager with odds (a.k.a. laying odds):

• 1 to 2 for points of 4 and 10.
• 2 to 3 for points of 5 and 9.
• 5 to 6 for points of 6 and 8.

Pros of Taking Craps Odds

Odds is the only bet where the casino doesn’t have a house edge. And what’s great is that you can reduce the house advantage to almost nothing by taking higher odds.

Here’s a look at how far the house edge is reduced based on the odds you take:

Odds	Pass Line/Come	Don’t Pass Line/Don’t Come
0x	1.41% house edge	1.36% house edge
1x	0.848%	0.682%
2x	0.606%	0.455%
Full Double Odds	0.572%	0.431%
3x	0.471%	0.341%
3x 4x 5x	0.374%	0.273%
5x	0.326%	0.227%
10x	0.184%	0.124%
20x	0.099%	0.065%
100x	0.021%	0.014%

Cons of Taking Craps Odds

Casinos cap the size of odds because they don’t make long term profits off these wagers. The highest most casinos go is 5x odds, while others don’t even allow this amount.

A few Las Vegas casinos offer anywhere from 10x to 100x odds. And this seems like a dream based on how higher odds reduce the house edge further.

But the problem is that most players don’t have the bankroll to continue taking the highest odds available. If you put $10 on pass line and take 20x odds, you need an additional $200.

The average gambler doesn’t have this kind of money for a single bet, even if there’s no house edge involved.

7. The Labouchere

The Labouchere (a.k.a. cancellation system) is a negative progression betting strategy like the Martingale. The main difference, though, is that it’s less risky.

You start this system by creating a unit size. And the simplest way to do this is by choosing the table’s minimum bet.

The next step involves deciding how many units you want to win during your session. After deciding this, you create a string of numbers that adds up to your desired unit win.

You then add the first and last number in the sequence to determine your bet.

You cross off both of these numbers after a win. And you add the combined number to the end of your string after a loss.

Here’s an example of the Labouchere in action:

• You want to win 18 units.
• Your number string is: 3, 4, 5, 3, 3.
• Your first bet is 6 units (3 + 3).
• You win and your new string is: 4, 5, 3.
• Your next bet is 7 units (4 + 3).
• You lose and your new string is: 4, 5, 3, 7.

Pros of the Labouchere

One good thing about the Labouchere is that it gives you more freedom than most betting systems. You decide your unit size, desired profit, and how to achieve this profit.

Another good aspect to the cancellation system is that it’s not as risky as systems like the Martingale. Rather than doubling your bet following every loss to win back losses, you’re merely wagering a certain amount of units.

Cons of the Labouchere

The biggest problem with this system is that you’re forced to make a series of big bets during a losing streak. Let’s look at how this works by going back to the number sequence in the first example:

• Your number sequence is: 3, 4, 5, 3, 4.
• Your first bet is 7 units.
• You lose and your new string is: 3, 4, 5, 3, 4, 7.
• You lose a 10-unit bet and your new string is: 3, 4, 5, 3, 4, 7, 10.

This isn’t as bad as doubling your bets after every loss. But most players won’t feel comfortable wagering between 7 and 10 units for several bets in a row.

8. Making Even-Money Bets in French Roulette

Roulette offers three main variations, which are American roulette, European roulette, and French roulette. The best version is French roulette because it only has a 1.35% house edge.

French roulette is played on a European wheel (37 numbers). But the difference between European and French roulette is that the latter has the la partage rule.

La partage pays half your bet back on losing even-money wagers that land on zero. This effectively cuts the European roulette house edge (2.70%) in half as long as you stick with even-money bets.

Pros of Even-Money French Roulette Bets

The best aspects to making even-money bets with French roulette include the low house edge and excellent probability of winning.

As for the latter, you have a 48.64% chance of winning red/black, odd/even, and high/low. This is even better than your chances of winning a blackjack hand (42.22%) or baccarat hand (45.85%) when ties are accounted for.

The high probability of winning and the low house edge combine to create low volatility. And this is perfect for players with small bankrolls who want to last in casino games.

Cons of Even-Money French Roulette Bets

The biggest problem is that you can’t find French roulette in most land-based or online casinos.

France, Germany, and Monte Carlo offer a fair number of French roulette games. But the game is sparsely found in most other countries.

Any online casino with Microgaming or Realtime Gaming software will offer French roulette. Cryptologic (NYX Gaming) also has a European roulette variation that’s actually French roulette.

But beyond this, you’ll have a hard time even finding French roulette online.

9. Oscar’s Grind

Oscar’s Grind is another negative progression strategy in the same vein as the Martingale or Labouchere. But this one is more complicated.

You start off by betting 1 unit. And you keep your unit size the same when you’re in a winning or losing streak.

You increase your bet by 1 unit whenever you win following a loss. The bet size stays at this level until you lose, then win again.

The overall theme is to chase losses following losing streaks. Here’s an example to illustrate Oscar’s Grind:

• You bet 1 unit and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at. 1)
• You bet 1 unit and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at. 2)
• You bet 1 unit and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at. 3)
• You bet 1 unit and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at. 4)
• You bet 1 unit and win – Next bet becomes 2 units (bankroll at. 3)
• You bet 2 units and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at. 5)
• You bet 2 units and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at. 7)
• You bet 2 units and win – Next bet becomes 3 units (bankroll at. 5)
• You bet 3 units and win – Bet stays the same (bankroll at. 2).
• You bet 3 units and win – Next bet becomes 1 unit (bankroll at +1).

Once you book a profit following a losing streak, you start the process over again.

Pros of Oscar’s Grind

The good thing about Oscar’s Grind is that it allows you to chase losses without going overboard. You’re only increasing bets by 1 unit following a losing streak, which is less risky than both the Labouchere and Martingale.

The other benefit is that Oscar’s Grind is less likely to reach the table betting limit than the other two systems. This minimizes the problem of running into the table limit during a lengthy losing streak.

Cons of Oscar’s Grind

The first downside to Oscar’s Grind is that it’s more confusing than both the Labouchere and Martingale.

Examples help with learning Oscar’s Grind. But it’s not the easiest to start with if you’re new to betting strategies.

The other problem is that this system is also subject to risk and table limits if you use it over a long time period. The risk is minimized with Oscar’s Grind, but there’s still a small chance that you’ll run into a table limit.

10. No. 12 Seed vs. No. 5 Seed in March Madness

One of the worst kept secrets about March Madness betting is that No. 12 seeds are a good bet to beat No. 5 seeds.

The four No. 12 seeds in the NCAA Tournament usually face long odds to beat the No. 5 seeds. But they also have a high success rate when considering the disparity in rankings.

At least one No. 12 seed has beaten a No. 5 seed in the first round in 16 of the past 17 NCAA Tournaments. Over the past five years (2013 to 17), nine No. 12 seeds have triumphed in the first round.

Pros of Betting on No. 12 Seeds

You can win quite frequently by betting on No. 12 seeds to beat the spread.

In the last nine March Madness events, No. 12 seeds have gone 23-12-1 against the spreads (ATS). This includes an impressive 11–4–1 ATS over the past five seasons.

These low seeded teams can also earn you big profits through straight up bets. No. 12 seeds have a decent chance of winning versus the long odds they carry.

Cons of Betting on No. 12 Seeds

The problem with betting on No. 12 seeds is that they lose a majority of the time.

This isn’t to say that you shouldn’t still bet on No. 12 seeds, because they’ve been profitable over a long time period. But you still need the handicapping skills to determine which No. 12 seeds have a chance of winning, or at least covering the spread.

One more drawback is that you only have four chances to make these bets every year. This leaves you with a very limited opportunity to take advantage of No. 12 seed bets.

Conclusion

Betting strategies should never be viewed as a way to make guaranteed profits and replace your day job. But some of them can be highly effective over the short run and spice up your gambling sessions.

The most reasonable strategies include betting less than 2% of your bankroll, wagering on the banker hand, taking craps odds, and making even-money bets in French roulette. These help you pull in consistent wins and limit the risk factor.

Riskier systems include the Martingale, Labouchere, and Oscar’s Grind. The latter is the safest of these betting systems because you don’t increase your bet as much following losses.

You can also make long-term profits with betting strategies if you’re skilled enough. These strategies include value betting, using the Martingale in skill based games, and wagering on No. 12 seeds in March Madness.

As you can see, there are a variety of working systems that cater to different interests. And wagering strategies can also make gambling more exciting.

Gambling is taking a risk of losing something of value on an unpredictable outcome. When you gamble at either an online or land based casino both you and the casino take a risk in losing something of value. The risk is greater for you because the casino only offers games that provide a statistical advantage to the casino.

However, much statutory and some case law has been devoted to ensuring that casinos and players don’t cheat each other by subtly altering the conditions of gambling games without each other’s knowledge and permission. You can, though, change the terms of the game. The casino often provides a way for you to do this.

But should you take the offer?

There are two things you need to understand before you can start improving your chances of winning when you gamble. First, you can change the outcome of a gambling game. Second, you will almost always confuse yourself if you try to do the math. These two most common of gambling mistakes help the casinos earn tens of billions of dollars every year.

How You Change the Outcome in a Gambling Game

Many casino gambling games allow and even encourage players to change the stakes, the odds, and even the percentage chances of winning. Here are a few examples of how you can change the outcome of a gambling game (almost always for the worst).

Say you are playing a slot machine game and you win a prize on a spin. A special “Gamble” button lights up. You are now prompted to play a secondary game, maybe betting on the outcome of a virtual coin toss, using the prize you just won as the stake in your new bet. This is an exciting feature. It also means you are risking the loss of what you just won on a game with a better “edge” for the casino.

Most slot games have a theoretical return to player above 75%. Games developed after 2010 usually have better than a 90% theoretical return. The RTP is an estimate of how much money would be retained by a hypothetical player who spun the reels continually for a period of several years. It’s not a realistic estimate of how much money you will win, lose, or hold on to. It’s a statistical measurement used to gauge how friendly the game is to the gambler.

In a coin toss the theoretical return to player is 50% or 1 in 2. So let’s assume you just gambled $5 on a spin in the basic slot game and that you won $10. You have doubled your money. Now the “Gamble” light activates and you are invited to take your $10 and bet it on the outcome of a coin toss. And suppose the “Gamble” feature allows you to wager on the outcome of two concurrent coin tosses. Now you have a choice: bet on 1 coin toss for a chance to double your $10 to $20 or bet on 2 concurrent coin tosses for a chance to quadruple your money.

Your chances of winning the double concurrent coin toss are 25% or 1 in 4.

You would have a better chance to keep your $10 prize and just spin again on the basic game. By taking the “Gamble” challenge you improve the casino’s chances of winning your next bet. It’s like paying $5 for a quarter of pie at one restaurant and then paying another $10 for an eighth of a pie at a different restaurant. Are you really getting a better piece of pie at the second restaurant?

In the game of blackjack if the dealer offers you insurance most experts tell you not to take it. Why? Because you are betting that you will lose your basic wager. The chances of being correct (that the dealer has a blackjack) on your insurance bet are worse than the chances that you can beat the dealer’s hand (your original wager).

The bottom line here is that casinos will sometimes offer you ways to change your stakes and your chances of winning to their own benefit. If you want to win at gambling, don’t take the deal behind door number 2. Stick to your original game and be consistent. Let someone else win the goat.

How to Confuse Yourself at Any Gambling Game

There is a certain idea among gambling experts that comparing the “house edge” in various gambling games helps you to make informed choices. The edge is a theoretical return to the casino, the complementary percentage for the theoretical return to player. In other words, in every form of gambling, there is only a 100% allocation of money. Gambling does not generate new wealth; all gambling does is pool wealth between the bettors and redistribute that wealth between the bettors (and sometimes also a middle man).

In the 1-on-1 game of blackjack there are only 2 bettors in your game: you and the casino. The casino is willing to pay up to the full amount of your bet if you win. It’s an even money match up, and that is really what makes blackjack so profitable for a casino. They risk less per round than they do with, say, roulette or a slot game. But if you have been reading blackjack tutorials you should know by now that the house edge is lower in blackjack than in other games, and therefore you have the best chance of winning in blackjack.

In fact, the dealer has a better chance of coming out ahead because at a busy table the dealer is playing multiple hands at once by the most conservative of rules. In other words, the casino is taking less risk per round in blackjack than the players while at the same time multiplying its chances of winning.

Players make mistakes when playing blackjack. Blackjack dealers don’t have to make hard decisions. In fact, by always going last the dealer often doesn’t have to make any choices at all. The players make most of the decisions in blackjack. And yet blackjack remains profitable for the casinos. The casinos are profiting from player mistakes.

Players make several types of gambling mistakes. One of the most common mistakes is to confuse the probability of winning with the theoretical return to player. The probability of winning is limited to the next round of play. The theoretical return to player is an estimate of what all the players of a game will collectively receive over the life of a specific game (or an arbitrarily large number of rounds in the game).

The rule of thumb is that the more rounds played for a given game the more the actual results of that game will average out close to the theoretical return to player (or the house edge).

But what are the chances of your drawing a natural blackjack on the next deal? What are the chances that the dealer will not win against you on the next deal? These are probabilities that can be computed on the basis of how many cards are left in the shoe, less the cards that have already been played. Those probabilities change as more cards are played but they rarely if ever line up with the theoretical return to player.

The mistake players make is assuming that the house only has a 2.5% chance of winning the next round. The dealer’s chance of winning that next hand can be as high as 100% and as low as 0%. The house edge is always irrelevant with respect to any individual round played on any gambling game from keno to slots to blackjack to baccarat.

When you gamble, it’s nice to know how much money the house is expected to retain over the next 30 days but that won’t help you predict how much you win or lose in any of the next 10 rounds of play.

Expert gamblers like to calculate probabilities but probabilities do not predict the next round’s outcome. The roulette wheel always has a 1 in 37 or 1 in 38 chance of landing on any given number. The chance that the ball will land on number “7” 100 times in a row remains 1 in 37 or 1 in 38. That never changes (allowing for truly random spins, although the laws of physics mandate that the spins won’t be completely random).

On the other hand, what is the expected probability of a random spin of the roulette wheel producing “7” 100 times in a row? This is where you multiply your individual spin probability (1/3x) by itself the number of times in a row (100 in this case). The expected probability of the wheel hitting “7” 100 times in a row is 1.51296e-157 (a very, very small number). But that low probability has no bearing on the probability of the next spin.

This is the dichotomy of probability theory, where you are dealing with large sequences of independent events. The expected probability does not mean you cannot or will not see the unlikely outcome. In this hypothetical example, we are simply computing how many possible outcomes there are and assuming the chances of producing the same result 100 times in a row are equivalent to a certain percentage of those possible outcomes.

Unfortunately (even semi-) random events have a way of defying the probabilities. But if someone offers you 100-to-1 odds that a roulette wheel will land on “7” 100 times in a row, verify their ability to pay and take the wager. They lose as soon as a different result turns up before the 100^TH spin.

The bottom line here is simple: don’t try to do the math like an expert. Random chance will always eventually prove the experts wrong.

What You Must Do to Improve Your Chances of Winning

Here are a few basic rules for improving your chances of winning when you gamble.

1. Stop second-guessing yourself.

Every casino game offers you a fair chance of winning. The games, when played fairly and legally, pay prizes that correspond to the expected probabilities of given outcomes, although casinos will hold back a little bit extra in most games to ensure they make some money. Hence, in roulette, the most you can win is 36-to-1 instead of 37-to-1 or 38-to-1.

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The odds are always stacked against you. But random chance favors the fool, as the old saying goes. You just cannot guarantee you are the fool upon whom random chance showers its favors.

2. Take the least possible risk.

In a hypothetical game where you win 100 rounds out of 100 rounds, you will kick yourself if you only wager $5 on each round for the chance to win $5 instead of wagering $100 on each round for the chance to win $10,000 on each round.

In reality, positive thinking doesn’t work when you gamble. The more you assume you could win the more you are likely to lose when you do lose.

Risking less does mean you win less per round but that’s okay.

3. Manage your money so that you play as many rounds as possible.

You are more likely to win back $100 in wagers if you divide them into twenty $5 wagers than if you divide them into five $20 wagers.

Instead of playing numbers games (which is second guessing yourself) or assuming you will win a certain number of times (which is taking more than the least possible risk) you should assume you are going to lose more rounds than you win. When you play slots or even a modest keno game (like a 5-pick) you can still come out ahead when you play more rounds with small wagers than fewer rounds with large wagers.

But how does playing conservatively work in blackjack, when the average prize is an even money bet? If you lose only 49% of the rounds in blackjack you lose. Okay, smart guy, you know you need to double down a few times. Instead of playing numbers games and assuming you can lose X number of hands and double down on Y hands, just accept that once in a while you’ll have to double down to improve your chances in blackjack.

When should you double down? The experts agree that if the dealer is showing a 5 or 6 and you have an ace and anything less than a 7.

You don’t need to double a lot as long as you can double enough to come out ahead.

4. Don’t try to win big.

That’s the real fun in gambling, though, isn’t it? You want to win the jackpot, hit the long odds, and outwit the dealer at every hand.

Going for the big win is the worst possible way to gamble. You may not be playing all-or-nothing but you are playing too much.

Still, you can adjust the amount of your wagers upward if you are doing well. Just keep them proportionate to your bankroll.

5. Use a consistent percentage ceiling in your wager to bankroll ratio.

Although it is prudent to limit your initial wagers to 5% of your original bankroll, at some point you may double or triple your money. Does it make sense to continue playing by the original 5% measure?

Most gamblers will feel confident enough to increase their wagers. But while it’s usually good advice to ignore all betting systems when you gamble (because each has its flaws), you can set a limit of “5% of your current bankroll down to half”, meaning you gamble with $5 bets until you lose half the money you came in with.

If you double your money then you can double your wagers as long as you don’t go above 5%.

Five percent is not a magic number. You can set the percentage at 1%, 5%, 15%, or even 20%. You should be consistent about not going above your percentage. You still have the flexibility of making larger wagers if you roll up your money.

6. Divide Your Bankroll At Certain Split Points.

This technique works best in land-based casinos, especially when you can put your money into tickets that are easy to carry around. A split point is a multiple of your bankroll. Say you begin gambling with $200 and you roll that up to $400 at the craps table. Now take half your money and put $200 of it into a ticket.

You can continue playing craps with the remaining $200 or you can try another game. When you roll up your second $200 to $400 again you split the money into another ticket plus money to play with.

After you have 3 or 4 tickets you can rotate them. Never play a ticket all the way down. Leave at least a few dollars on it so you can leave the casino with some money (and a little dignity).

When you gamble online it makes some sense to shift money from the game balance back to your main account. As long as you have money in your game account you should be good. It helps you to stay focused on conservative betting if you take money out of the game when you get ahead of your original bankroll.

7. Play with Casino Bonus Money Whenever Possible

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Land-based casinos may not offer you signup bonuses but many online casinos do. Play conservatively with the casino bonus money to increase your chances of fulfilling your wagering requirement with just the bonus money. While that won’t always happen the longer you can delay putting your own money into the game the better the chances you’ll start winning.

You can try this strategy with the “no deposit” welcome bonuses some casinos offer but they do limit how much credit they extend to you. You have more bonus money to work with when you accept a deposit match bonus.

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8. Stick to the Basic Game.

Whether you play slots, craps, roulette, or blackjack the less complicated you make your game the less likely you’ll place dumb bets.

The casino is counting you to make dumb bets. You should count on the casino to be less than generous with its odds on the best most likely to pay off.

There are few progressive wagers that are worth the money. The more you throw into a round the harder it will be to recover from a loss.

In craps bet on Pass or Don’t Pass and play the odds but keep it simple.

In blackjack bide your time and don’t split every time you get a pair of cards of the same value. Should you really split two 5 cards when you’re showing 10 on the table? Should you split two tens? Two nines? You have three options: play the basic game, double down, or split. On some tables you may be able to surrender if you don’t like the dealer’s cards but look at the strength of your cards first and your options for splitting second.

9. Assume the free games are more generous than the paid games.

When you have a chance to “try before you buy” at an online casino the free game just may be slightly more generous than the paid version. There are several reasons why this might happen. If you can check the theoretical return to player for a free game and the paid version, look for differences.

Does the free game run on a different server? The different server may be using a different random number generator, a different random seed number, or a different estimated percentage for the theoretical return to player. Variations in all these things can affect the randomness of the outcome of the game.

10. Play low variance games.

Sad to say, but the less volatility there is in the prize to wager ratio of a game the more likely it will pay you prizes. Volatility is an important measure for a casino because it needs to know how much cash to keep on hand. But you need to know how long you may have to play a game before you win a nice prize. That is where the variance comes into play.

Think of variance as “how much any random outcome of a game varies from the average expected outcome”. There is a relationship between variance and volatility (in fact, some gambling writers use these terms interchangeably). The casino cares more about the volatility and the player cares more about the variance.

How do you judge variance? It comes down to how long you can play the game with your initial bankroll. A low variance game has a tendency to take less of your money.

Hence, as noted above, you can affect the variance of the game in a limited way by playing conservatively and ignoring the extra bets the house offers.

Conclusion

Think of gambling as an endurance race between the bettors. Whoever can go more rounds wins the most money, unless random chance steps in and hands a big win to the individual gambler. Then gambling is more about who has the most self-discipline. The casino is playing a numbers game and just has to be there with enough cash on hand to keep the games going. The player has to have the wisdom and the self-discipline to walk away with the cash.

Harvard Medical School published a trove of data about online gamblers that was collected from 2005 to 2007 by an online casino (Bwin). Researchers who studied the data concluded that about 11% of gamblers were likely to win and that winners were more likely to play less frequently. Subsequently, researchers from the University of Michigan and the University of Connecticut compared that analysis to their own analysis of data from a Native American casino’s database. The second study found that about 13.5% of the land-based gamblers were winners.

The good news for most gamblers is that fewer than 5% of them contribute about 50% of the casino’s net revenue, and about 10% contribute 80% of the casino’s revenue, so most gamblers are not big losers. That means approximately 80% of gamblers share the burden of about 20% of the casino’s net revenue between themselves. Given that most people cannot lose enough money (for lack of wealth) to drop into the lower 10% (the Big Losers) changing how one gambles increases an individual’s chances of moving into the upper 10%.

Gamblers with little wealth to lose should still learn to make better choices. You cannot guarantee you will win but you can always cut your losses short or take fewer risks. Gambling is more fun when it is just entertainment. If your losses amount to no more than what you would spend on other types of entertainment such as concerts and travel, then have fun.

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